Over the past 24 hours, I issued a series of earthquake watches (alerts) for the East Coast to experience earthquake activity.
Less than 24 hours after issuing a 1-2 day earthquake forecast watch for the area, a very rare 3.4 magnitude (revised to 3.3M) earthquake has struck at a shallow depth in Connecticut.
An earthquake struck directly at the center of the area being watched for movement.
See the forecast warning the East coast (from yesterday) here:
Quote the forecast:
“This means new pressure is now being placed on the North American plate from the East (Atlantic), and the ongoing pressure from the West (Pacific) is already present will be now pressing the plate from both sides.
This should be putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the Eastern portion of the craton.. meaning we need to watch the East coast for possible movement , or watch the CENTRAL mid-Atlantic for larger movement as the ridge is in obvious flux at the moment.
I certainly hope things calm down a bit along the Atlantic, to see this flurry of activity happen so quickly, across such a vast area , is certainly enough to get me to raise my eyebrows a bit.
Especially raising my eyebrows towards the areas that are NOT moving yet.”
Watch the most recent earthquake update / forecast to understand WHY East coast movement would be coming soon:
“Professionals” say (incorrectly) that earthquakes cannot be forecast. Indeed, they are mistaken.
Curious how the forecasting method works? See my post titled “how to forecast an earthquake” to begin your quest to learn new science. Rather exciting new science to learn I might add.
At this point, you’d think someone would try to contact me, or call me about getting these forecasts correct. Hmm.. professionals in denial, or do people honestly think I keep getting “lucky” over and over again?
USGS stats on the event:
M3.3 – 5km E of Plainfield, Connecticut 2015-01-12 11:36:37 UTC
- 2015-01-12 11:36:37 UTC
- 2015-01-12 06:36:37 UTC-05:00 at epicenter
- 2015-01-12 05:36:37 UTC-06:00 system time
41.675°N 71.848°W depth=3.9km (2.4mi)
- 5km (3mi) E of Plainfield, Connecticut
- 14km (9mi) WSW of Coventry, Rhode Island
- 18km (11mi) S of Killingly Center, Connecticut
- 25km (16mi) NE of Norwich, Connecticut
- 39km (24mi) WSW of Providence, Rhode Island
From the USGS on New England seismicity:
Earthquakes in New England
People in New England, and in its geological extension southward through Long Island, have felt small earthquakes and suffered damage from infrequent larger ones since colonial times. Moderately damaging earthquakes strike somewhere in the region every few decades, and smaller earthquakes are felt roughly twice a year. The Boston area was damaged three times within 28 years in the middle 1700’s, and New York City was damaged in 1737 and 1884. The largest known New England earthquakes occurred in 1638 (magnitude 6.5) in Vermont or New Hampshire, and in 1755 (magnitude 5.8) offshore from Cape Ann northeast of Boston. The Cape Ann earthquake caused severe damage to the Boston waterfront. The most recent New England earthquake to cause moderate damage occurred in 1940 (magnitude 5.6) in central New Hampshire.
Earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S., although less frequent than in the western U.S., are typically felt over a much broader region. East of the Rockies, an earthquake can be felt over an area as much as ten times larger than a similar magnitude earthquake on the west coast. A magnitude 4.0 eastern U.S. earthquake typically can be felt at many places as far as 100 km (60 mi) from where it occurred, and it infrequently causes damage near its source. A magnitude 5.5 eastern U.S. earthquake usually can be felt as far as 500 km (300 mi) from where it occurred, and sometimes causes damage as far away as 40 km (25 mi).
Earthquakes everywhere occur on faults within bedrock, usually miles deep, although some New England earthquakes occur at shallower depths. Most of New England’s and Long Island’s bedrock was assembled as continents collided to form a supercontinent 500-300 million years ago, raising the northern Appalachian Mountains. The rest of the bedrock formed when the supercontinent rifted apart 200 million years ago to form what are now the northeastern U.S., the Atlantic Ocean, and Europe.
At well-studied plate boundaries like the San Andreas fault system in California, often scientists can determine the name of the specific fault that is responsible for an earthquake. In contrast, east of the Rocky Mountains this is rarely the case. New England and Long Island are far from the nearest plate boundaries, which are in the center of the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea. New England is laced with known faults but numerous smaller or deeply buried faults remain undetected. Even the known faults are poorly located at the depths of most earthquakes. Accordingly, few, if any, earthquakes in New England can be linked to named faults. It is difficult to determine if a known fault is still active and could slip and cause an earthquake. As in most other areas east of the Rockies, the best guide to earthquake hazards in New England and Long Island is the earthquakes themselves.